Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of underreported count data with an application to worker absenteeism

A new approach for modeling under-reported Poisson counts is developed. The parameters of the model are estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. An application to workers absenteeism data from the German Socio-Economic Panel illustrates the fruitfulness of the approach. Worker absenteeism and the level of pay are unrelated, but absence rates increase with firm size.     

Incentives of Stock Option Based Compensation

We introduce explicitly the effort as a choice variable in a continuous time utility maximisation framework of an executive who is partly compensated with stock options. We solve the model in the case where the executive is not allowed to trade in the company’s stock but is able to achieve a partial insurance through trading in a correlated market portfolio. We define the executive’s value of the options through a certainty equivalence approach both in the case of European call options and non-standard capped stock options and study the behaviour of the reservation price as relevant parameters change.JEL Classification: G13, G30, G32, J33, M12     

Income thresholds of dissaving in Germany: empirical evidence from the recent sample survey of income and expenditure (EVS 2008)

Saving of private households monotonically increases with income. If the regression lines, which represent the ‘demand for saving’, assume negative values, saving turns into dissaving, i.e. dissolving assets or going into debt. The zeros of the demand functions for saving are called ‘dissaving thresholds’. Dissaving thresholds for Germany are determined econometrically using the Sample Survey of Income and Expenditure. Dissaving thresholds turn out to be far higher than social assistance amounts. Implications for economic, social and consumer policy in Germany are discussed.     

Antecedents and consequences of effectuation and causation in the international new venture creation process

The selection of the entry mode in an international market is of key importance for the venture. A process-based perspective on entry mode selection can add to the International Business and International Entrepreneurship literature. Framing the international market entry as an entrepreneurial process, this paper analyzes the antecedents and consequences of causation and effectuation in the entry mode selection. For the analysis, regression-based techniques were used on a sample of 65 gazelles. The results indicate that experienced entrepreneurs tend to apply effectuation rather than causation, while uncertainty does not have a systematic influence. Entrepreneurs using causation-based international new venture creation processes tend to engage in export-type entry modes, while effectuation-based international new venture creation processes do not predetermine the entry mode.     

Konjunktur- und Strukturkomponenten der Länderhaushalte

Deutschland hat im August 2009 eine Schuldenregel im Grundgesetz verankert. Die Bundesl?nder müssen bis 2020 ihre Ausgaben grunds?tzlich ohne Kredite fi nanzieren. Konjunkturbedingte Defi zite sind weiterhin m?glich, die in konjunkturell guten Zeiten ausgeglichen werden müssen. Das RWI hat ein Verfahren entwickelt, wie die Konjunktur- und Strukturkomponenten der Landeshaushalte berechnet werden sollten.     

EUCO2 80/50 — Entwicklung regionaler Reduktionsstrategien durch Stakeholder-Beteiligung

Analysen und BerichteInvestitionen

Die deutsche Investitionsschw?che und die EWU — Fakt oder Fiktion? — eine Replik     

Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: The Active Investment Strategies behind Index Performance

This paper argues that the commonly used market indices imply forms of active investment management in disguise. The selection and rebalancing rules make these indices highly exclusive and dynamic regarding their underlying components and significantly bias their performance. Any passive investment tracking these indices turns into an active strategy characterised by market timing and state‐dependent performance. Evidence is provided that exclusive indices outperform (underperform) more inclusive peer indices in upward (downward) markets. The constitution and maintenance rules of exclusive indices correspond to a set of active trading and investment rules similar to momentum strategies.     

Decline of Controlled Foreign Company Rules and Rise of Intellectual Property Boxes: How the European Court of Justice Affects Tax Competition and Economic Distortions in Europe

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has become an influential player in the field of direct taxation in the European Union (EU) in the past 20 years. However, it is unclear whether or not the ECJ's decisions and the corresponding reactions by the member states actually contribute to tax neutrality in economic terms and, therefore, to the achievement of the internal market. In 2006, the ECJ limited the applicability of specific tax rules in the EU that are intended to prohibit the excessive use of low‐tax countries by multinationals. Our counterfactual analysis shows that the court's restriction of so‐called controlled foreign company rules and the related second‐round reactions by some member states – i.e. the introduction of low‐tax regimes for income from acquired intellectual properties (IP boxes for acquired IP) – cast doubt on the seemingly positive effects the ECJ has on reducing tax distortions. In addition, we demonstrate that the restricted applicability of IP boxes as endorsed by the OECD and the European Commission would strengthen tax neutrality in Europe.     

Parimutuel contests with strategic risk-sensitive bettors

Existing models in the parimutuel betting literature typically explain betting data by either assuming a single, representative bettor with certain risk preferences or by assuming that a number of risk neutral bettors compete strategically within a game theoretic framework. We construct a theoretical framework of parimutuel markets in which we model both strategic interaction and individual bettor risk preferences, distinguishing between sophisticated insiders and recreational outsiders. We solve this model analytically for the optimal insider betting amount in a static symmetric Nash equilibrium. A new data set of 126 million individual horse race bets in New Zealand from 2006 to 2014 allows us to calibrate the model. We find that insiders (those betting $100 or more) outperform outsiders by 7.5% in terms of realized returns. The best fit of the model to the data is obtained when insiders are assumed to be risk neutral and to have an information advantage of 0.08 in probability terms. This finding provides empirical support for the common assumption of risk neutrality in strategic interaction models of parimutuel betting.